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The federal budget is expected to reach a surplus of $4.1 billion in 2019-20, with the forecast deficit to drop from $14.5 billion to $5.2 billion in 2018-19.
The 2019-20 projected surplus will be the first surplus since the final budget of the Howard government in 2007-08, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said.
“Over the next four years, the cumulative estimated surplus will be nearly double the estimate in this year’s budget, with underlying cash surpluses increasing to $12.5 billion in 2020-21 and $19.0 billion in 2021-22,” he noted.
The combination of a growing economy with a record number of people in work is helping to increase revenues while decreasing expenditure.
“This means expected total receipts have been revised up by $8.3 billion in 2018-19 and $12.4 billion over the four years to 2021-22,” the Treasurer said.
As a result of the improved budget position, net debt is expected to decline in each year of the forward estimates and medium term, falling from 18.2 per cent of GDP in 2018-19 to 1.5 per cent in 2028-29.
The government also expects the real GDP to grow by 2.75 per cent in 2018-19 and 3 per cent in 2019-20.
“This growth outlook is forecast to support continuing employment growth, helping to keep the unemployment rate at 5 per cent, which is around a quarter of a percentage point lower than forecast at the budget,” Mr Frydenberg explained.
Nominal GDP is forecast to grow by 4.75 per cent in 2018-19.