Typically, a vice president can serve as an advisor and confidant to the president, and be charged with overseeing particular issues, as Kamala Harris initially was for the Biden administration’s immigration response. Prior to her, George W Bush’s vice president, Dick Cheney,led much of the administration’s effortsrelated to the War on Terror; then-Vice President Joe Bidenled critical Obama administration’s foreign policy initiativesranging from Latin America to Iraq; and Vice President Mike Pence made tripsreassuringUS allies and partners overseas and deliveredspeechesduring the Trump administration that gave strategic clarity to the administration’s actions.
With former president Donald Trump now the presumptive Republican presidential nominee for a third consecutive election,numerous Republicans are anglingto be his running mate in November’s general election. The contenders’ differing backgrounds, records and policy positions hold clues as to what their time in office could look like — and the implications for Australia and the Indo-Pacific. Below is a selection of the possible candidates Trump may choose, along with summaries of their views on key domestic and foreign policy topics, and what Australians should know about them if they were to become the next US vice president.
The loyalists
Elise Stefanik
Known for:US House Representative for New York’s 21st Congressional district (2015–), Chair of the House Republican Conference (2021–)
Home state:New York
Age in 2024:40 (born 2 July 1984)
Who are they?
Widely seen as one of the Republican party’s rising stars, Stefanik was the then-youngest woman ever elected to Congress in 2014, at age 30. While she wasoncea party moderate, serving as a Bush-era Domestic Policy Council staffer and working on Paul Ryan’s 2012 presidential campaign, Stefanik has sincebecomeone of Trump’s most vocal supporters. Shejoined effortsto dispute the result of the 2020 election and replacedoustedTrump critic Liz Cheney as Chair of the House Republican Conference in 2021. Most recently, Stefanik gained national attention for hercombative questioningof university presidents in December 2023 antisemitism hearings.
VP CV
Her now-unfettered support for the former president and claims that shewould not havecertified the 2020 election make her an attractive choice if Trump wishes to recruit a loyalist. Stefanik’s youth would also be an electoral asset. Her experience with presidential campaigns, helping to write the Republican National Committee 2012 platform and assisting with Paul Ryan’s 2012 debate preparations, could also be a selling point. Trump labelled her a “killer” in a purported January 2024 meeting to discuss vice presidential options, while Stefanik hassignalledher willingness to serve as his running mate.“I would be honoured to serve in any capacity in a Trump administration. I’m proud to be the first member of Congress to endorse his reelection.”8 January 2024, NBC Meet the Press
Stefanik sat on the exclusively RepublicanHouseChina Task Force and has led delegations to Indo-Pacific allies and partners and advocated for strengthening regional partnerships as part of US China strategy. She is a member of the House Taiwan caucus and co-sponsored legislation that would bolster military and diplomatic support for Taiwan and increase the “US strategic clarity” toward a CCP invasion. However, her notable shifts in policy positions throughout her career could mean her views continue to change as a vice presidential nominee to more closely align with Trump.
Ukraine| As a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, Stefanik led a bipartisan congressionaldelegationto Ukraine in 2018. Following Russia’s 2022 invasion, shesaid“the US must stand strongly behind Ukraine — a critical security partner in the region.” She has stated that the United States “made a mistake years ago of Ukraine not being admitted to NATO” and said that Ukraine “need[s] to be admitted into NATO.” Since the invasion, however, she has argued that the United States should not provide a “blank check” on aid to Ukraine and that “NATO allies need to step up when it comes to contributing to the effort.”
Abortion| Stefanik earned an endorsement and anA+ ratingfrom the anti-abortion Susan B Anthony List and hassaidthat she is “proud to put an end to the radical, taxpayer-funded, abortion-on-demand until the moment of birth Far Left Democrat agenda.” In 2023, Stefanik described the overturning of Roe v Wade as a restoration of “the correct interpretation of the Constitution.” She is astrong supporterof theHyde Amendment,which prevents taxpayer dollars from being used to fund abortions, though shesaidin 2014 that Republicans needed to bring a compassionate approach to the abortion debate.
Known for:Governor of South Dakota (2019–), US House Representative for South Dakota’s at-large district (2011–2019)
Home state:South Dakota
Age in 2024: 52 (born 30 November 1971)
Who are they?
South Dakota’s first female governor started her political career in the South Dakota House of Representatives in 2006 and later spent eight years in Congress. Noem wasendorsedby Trump during her 2018 gubernatorial campaign androse to national prominenceduring the COVID-19 pandemic over her banning of mask and vaccination mandates, and insistence on keeping schools and businesses open. She was re-elected in 2022 with thelargest vote totalin South Dakota’s history and has been a strong advocate of limited government, stating that “the solution to our challenges lies in less government, not more.”
VP CV
Like Stefanik, Noem could help Trump’s image among younger voters and women, and has positioned herself as a loyalist to his movement. During the pandemic, Noem’s policies mirrored Trump’s national rhetoric, and sherefusedto issue a statewide mask mandate and encouraged businesses to remain open. While her governorship of South Dakota gives her leadership experience, she hasmiddling approval ratingsand the deep red state would do little to expand Trump’s electoral map. She has heaped praise on Trump both during and after his tenure in the White House, saying that the United States “desperately” needs Trump as president.
“I think anybody in this country, if they were offered [the vice presidency], needs to consider it.”4 January 2024, CBS News
Relationship with Trump
Trump and Noem have maintained a strong relationship since his first term. After heendorsedher 2018 gubernatorial campaign, she returned the favour bycampaigning for Trump in Iowain January 2024. Trump has praised her, recentlysayingthat she “has been incredible fighting for me. She said, 'I'd never run against him because I can't beat him.' That was a very nice thing to say." Noemattributedthe continued existence of the United States to “the good that [Trump] did when he was in the White House — and how he still continues to tell the truth out there every single day.”
What should Australians know?
Noem’s support for international economic engagement has been framed around trade and South Dakotan interest in agriculture and market access. She echoes Trump’s isolationist rhetoric regarding Ukraine and has strongly opposed Biden’s climate policies, potentially suggesting that she would not support the Australia-US Climate Compact, but she may be less willing to abandon efforts that increase US market access for agricultural exports.
Foreign policy
Asian alliances| In 2014, Noemjoineda congressional delegation to meet leaders in Japan, South Korea and China todiscussregional security, trade opportunities and strengthening alliances. In her two years on the House Armed Services Committee, she reportedlyworkedon the2014National Defense Authorization Act(NDAA), and sat on thecommitteeduring its review of the US pivot to Asia under the Obama administration. InCongressin 2011, Noemvotedto raise the US debt ceiling butcalledfor reform of the US tax code and for long-term spending cuts to offset the cost.
China| Noem hasclaimedthat the Chinese Communist Party is “the biggest external threat facing America today” and has a “long-term agenda to destroy the United States.” She was the second US governor tobanTikTok andTencentfrom state government-issued devices and has been especiallycriticalof China regarding food supply and foreign land acquisition, given South Dakota’s reliance on agriculture. Sheadvocatesfor labelling China as a “foreign adversary entity” of elevated risk when reviewing property transactions andendorsedthePRC Accountability and Divestment Actof 2023, which seeks to restrict state investments in CCP-linked companies.
Trade| Noem indicatedsupportfor the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2016, in the belief that trade agreements bolster US security and ensure that China does not become “the country of influence” among regional partners. In 2019, she stated that Trump’s trade wars had “devastated” South Dakota and, while she agreed that countries like China had engaged in unfair trade practices, she urged the Trump administration to “quickly wrap up” its trade discussions with Beijing. Noem hasemphasisedthe particular importance of the Indo-Pacific region as a market for US and South Dakotan agricultural products and lauded the signing of the US-Japan trade agreement in 2019 as “great news” for South Dakota’s farmers and ranchers.
Climate| Noem is a strong opponent of Biden’s 2022Inflation Reduction Act(IRA). Under her governorship, South Dakota isone of fourstates that did not apply for clean energy grants provided by the IRA, andone of sixthat has not applied for its federal grant program, Solar for All Initiative, which aims to lower utility costs and promote renewable energy. She has criticised the grants, saying they “often comes with strings attached,” and joined other Republican governors tocallthe bill “another reckless tax and spending spree.”
Domestic policy
Domestic battles| Noem is aligned with conservative Republican views on a range of domestic issues. As governor, Noem has deployed the state’sNational Guardto the southern border three times (though the number of unauthorised immigrants in South Dakota isfar fewerthan in other states) anddescribedcurrent immigration issues as a “warzone at our Southern Border” and an “invasion.” Sheclaimedthere is “an organized, coordinated campaign to remove and eliminate all references to our nation’s founding and many other parts of our history.” Noemdefendeda state ban on abortion with exceptions only in cases of life risk for the mother and said that the overturning of Roe v Wade was “wonderful news.” However, shesuggestedshe would not advocate for a nation-wide abortion ban.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Known for:Governor of Arkansas (2023–present), White House press secretary (2017–2019), being the daughter of former governor and presidential candidate Mike Huckabee
Home state:Arkansas
Age in 2024:42 (born 13 August 1982)
Who are they?
The current governor of Arkansas first developed a national profile as White House press secretary in the Trump administration but previously held roles in the US Department of Education during the George W Bush administration and was involved in the political campaigns of her father, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. As press secretary, she hostedfewerpress conferences than the 13 previous White House press secretaries before her and daily press briefings becameirregulartowards the end of her tenure. She alsoaccompaniedTrump on all of his overseas trips during her tenure. As governor, she promised to make education reform the “hallmark” of her administration as an “education governor,” and passed the sweepingLEARNS Actin March 2023, which raised minimum teacher salaries, made it easier to fire poorly performing teachers, and placed restrictions on classroom instruction on “gender identity, sexual orientation and sexual reproduction” before fifth grade.
VP CV
Sanders’ relative youth would help to allay concerns over Trump’s age, which Sanders herself alluded to in her 2023 response to President Biden’s State of the Union when she called for a “new generation” of Republican leaders. She has remained on good terms with the former president, though Trump wasreportedly frustratedthat she took until November 2023 to endorse him in the 2024 race. As a more conventional Republican, Sanders would likely bolster Trump’s appeal to the Republican establishment and among women, though her red state background would do little to expand Trump’s electoral map.
“Look, I absolutely love the job I have. I think it’s one of the best jobs I could ever ask for and I am honoured to serve as governor and I hope I get to do it for the next seven years.”21 January, 2024, CBS News Face the Nation
Israel| As governor, Sanders has consistently stated that Arkansas “stands with Israel” and hasdescribedIsrael’s war in Gaza as an “ongoing battle between good and evil.” Shejoined20 Republican governors in October 2023 in blaming the war on the Biden administration’s "appeasement-first foreign policy” and calling for President Biden “to project American strength by, among other things, clearly and unequivocally condemning these attacks and supporting Israel’s unquestioned right to respond and defend itself.”
Domestic policy
Domestic battles| Sanders has pursued common conservative cultural topics, including signing anexecutive orderon her first day as governor banning the teaching of critical race theory and ideologies that she believes “indoctrinate students.” She has also banned the official use of terms such as “Latinx” and what she describes as “anti-woman words.” Sanders described the overturning of Roe v Wade as “a day so many of us have prayed for and worked towards.” She has described herself as “unapologetically pro-life" and said that she wouldnot supportexceptions for rape and incest in anti-abortion legislation during her gubernatorial campaign.
Immigration| Sanders has spoken out strongly on border security issues andclaimedin her 2023 State of the Union response that the Biden administration "refuses to secure the border” after inheriting “the most secure border in history.” As Arkansas governor, Sandersdeployedthe state’s National Guard to the southern border to assist the Texas National Guard in mid-2023, despite Arkansas not being a border state, andsaidthat Democratic policies that unwound Trump-era border restrictions “isn’t compassion — it’s cruelty.” Shewrotein August 2023 that “it’s time to close our border, stop the cartels, and end the flow of drugs and illegals into our country.”
The presidential dropouts
Tim Scott
Known for:2024 presidential campaign, Senator from South Carolina (2013–)
Home state:South Carolina
Age in 2024: 59 (born 19 September 1965)
Who are they?
Scott is the sole Black Republican in the US Senate and ran in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries butsuspendedhis campaign in November 2023 after failing to gain significant traction. Asuccessful2010 Tea Party candidate for Congress, Scott was appointed in 2012 to fill a Senate vacancy by then-South Carolina governor, and later presidential rival, Nikki Haley. Scott brought a notably optimistic tone to his presidential campaign andcited his journey“from cotton to Congress in one lifetime” as proof that America is “not a racist country” and is “not a land of oppression.” As recently as 2023, he indicatedsupportfor free trade negotiations in the Indo-Pacific and astronger US military presencein the region.
VP CV
As one of few nationally recognisable Black Republicans, Scott could help Trump gain support from Black voters — a key demographic that Trump’s campaign has targeted and which Trumpoverwhelmingly lostin 2020. Scott’s more conventional Republican views would also go some way to helping Trump tap into support from more moderate voters in the general election. Unlike some of his GOP rivals, Scott refrained from attacking the former president directly during his campaign and became effusive in his praise of Trump since suspending his campaign, notablydeclaring, “I just love you!” during a joint appearance.
“The one thing I can’t afford to do is take my eye off the ball. The eye on the ball means making sure that President Trump gets four more years.”5 February 2024, Fox News interview
Relationship with Trump
As a Senator during the Trump administration, Scott voted with Trump’s position97 per centof the time. Scott voted to acquit Trump in both impeachment trials in2020and2021, though following Trump’s comments on the 2017 Charleston riots,saidthat Trump’s “moral authority is compromised.” Scott voted to certify the 2020 election in the Senate on6 January 2021, which has reportedly been asource of contentionwithin Trump’s circles in discussions surrounding his future running mate. Trump nevertheless endorsed Scott for his successful 2022Senate re-election campaign, and Scott endorsed Trump for the 2024 presidential election despite being aformer ally of Nikki Haley. Scott has downplayed Trump’s legal concerns, labelling them aspolitically motivatedand irrelevant to his electoral viability, saying that they have “only exposed the two-tiered justice system that many Americans fear.”
What should Australians know?
Scott has described strengthening the Australia-US alliance as “critical” to fostering a free and open Indo-Pacific. As a member of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations since January 2023, Scott has voted on US foreign policy issues, including supportinglegislationthat facilitated the AUKUS agreement, andcalledfor greater US military engagement in the Indo-Pacific. In contrast to Trump, he has expressedsupportedfor free trade agreements as a means of securing US regional influence,votingin 2015 in favour of granting trade promotion authority to fast-track negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership. However, Scott’s stated position on tariffs has shifted in a more protectionist direction as he has sought to align himself more closely with Trump.
Foreign policy
Asian alliances| Scott described strengthening the Australia-US alliance as “critical as we face shared challenges and strive to foster an open and secure Indo-Pacific, free from CCP aggression.” He sits on the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and was part of a crucial bipartisan committeevotein July 2023 to effectively fast-track the transfer of US military hardware to Australia for the AUKUS agreement. Hecriticisedthe current US military footprint in the Indo-Pacific as insufficient and hascalledfor the United States to build a “stronger presence” in the region. Scott has alsoemphasisedthe importance of demonstrating that the United States is loyal to its allies and partners, specifically singling out Japan and Taiwan, and haspublicly connectedwith Australian Ambassador Kevin Rudd. He oncedescribedJapan as “a key ally for the US” and highlighted deepened US-Japan cooperation as critical to the pursuit of a “free, open, and secure Asia-Pacific.”
China| Scott hasdescribedChina as “the most dangerous and existential threat to American prosperity and security.” He hascriticisedBeijing’s trade practices, which hebelievesstifle US innovation and haspushedfor decoupling the US economy from China’s to the “fullest extent” possible andunleashingUS private sector innovation to “finish” what he describes as the “new economic Cold War.” While Scott introduced legislation that would “stick [a] ‘Made In China’ Label on TikTok” by notifying a user when an app is Chinese-owned, he hashesitated in calling for an outright ban of the app in the United States. In August 2023, Scott led a group of Republican senators in authoring aletter urging the US Department of Education Secretary to investigate alleged Chinese influence in the US school system. He also jointly introduced legislation in September 2023 to increase oversight of US science and technology agreements with China and criticised the potential for US-China civilian scientific collaboration to have military applications.
Taiwan| Scott hasemphasisedthe need for the United States to “stand shoulder to shoulder with the Taiwanese government” and continue to provide resources to the Taiwanese military, arguing that delivery on US commitments to Taiwan requires an“industrial revolution”in US military resources and equipment production. In July 2023, hepraisedthe Senate’s approval of a bill to strengthen the US trade relationship with Taiwan, affirming Taiwan’s role as a “reliable partner” in promoting freedom and democracy across the Indo-Pacific.
Trade| In contrast to Trump, as recently as 2023 Scottcalledfor stronger US leadership on trade and a return to free market principles, including a renewed commitment to “free enterprise” and “free trade.” He previouslyvotedin favour of granting trade promotion authority to fast-track the Obama administration’s negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2015 and has since cautioned against allowing other countries to have “the prime position to dictate Japan and the Asian market.” Scott has emphasised the importance of the United States “leading the conversation on new trade agreements” that bolster US access to global markets, and in 2021 signed alettercalling for the Biden administration to initiate digital trade negotiations with US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific. While he has described himself as a “free trader” and previouslycriticisedTrump-era tariffs on China, he has since described them as “prudent.”
Ukraine| Scottsuggestedthat Biden’s “weakness on the world stage” emboldened Russia to invade Ukraine in 2022, though hesupportedthe provision of military aid to Ukraine under thebeliefthat it is in the US “vital national interest.” In Scott’sview, “degrading the Russian military” serves two key purposes: preventing “attacks on the homeland” while reducing Russia’s capabilities to launch an attack on NATO territory that would draw in the United States.
Climate change|While Scottacknowledgesthat climate change is occurring, he has arecordof voting against policies aimed at curbing carbon emissions. Hejoined callsfor Trump to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017 and most recentlyvotedagainst theInflation Reduction Act, a Biden administration bill seeking to funnel billions into clean energy technologies,arguingthat spending under the bill would instead accelerate inflation.
Known for:2024 presidential campaign, founder and CEO of biotechnology company Roivant Sciences (2014–2021)
Home state:Ohio
Age in 2024: 39 (born 9 August 1985)
Who are they?
Ramaswamy is a biotech entrepreneur who rose to prominence as a long-shot 2024 Republican presidential candidate. His combative presence on the Republican primary debate stages and positioning as an heir to the Make America Great Again movement led to a brief breakout moment in Republican opinionpollingin the middle of 2023. Ramaswamy was arguably the most complimentary of Trump on the GOP primary campaign trail and quickly endorsed him after suspending his own presidential run. A self-described ‘anti-woke’ activist, he has written multiple bestsellers denouncingidentity politicsandsocially-conscious investing, and has founded anasset management fundthat encourages corporations to place financial profits above environmental, social and governance (ESG) efforts.
VP CV
Ramaswamy’s youth, strong support for the ‘America First’ agenda and swift endorsement of Trump could make him an appealing vice presidential choice for Trump. On the Republican debate stage, Ramaswamy was the first to signal that he would still support Trump if Trump were convicted of a crime. He has positioned himself in lockstep with Trump’s policy agenda — calling for the dismantling of the so-called “deep state,” denouncing climate change as a “hoax” andsupportingTrump’s deportation policies on immigration.
“We’re thinking things through... The role I’m going to play, whether it’s inside government or outside government, I’m gonna figure it out.”25 January 2024, Flagrant interview
Relationship with Trump
In his 2022 book, Ramaswamywroteof January 6 as a “dark day for democracy” and described Trump as a “sore loser” but has since come to describe January 6 as an “inside job,” the 2020 election as “stolen” and Trump as the “best president of the 21st century.” During his campaign, Ramaswamyemphasisedthat the ‘America First’ movement is “bigger than Donald Trump” and does not belong to one individual anddeniedthat he was a “disciple” of Trump. Nevertheless, he largely defended the former president’s legacy during the campaign. Despite somesnipingbetween their rival campaigns in January 2024, Ramaswamy immediately endorsed Trump after dropping out of the race,saying, “I think we’re going to do the right thing for this country. And so I’m going to ask you to follow me in taking our America First movement to the next level.” TrumpdescribedRamaswamy’s presidential campaign as a “hell of a job” and has continued to praise him since.
What should Australians know?
Ramaswamy spoke at length about his foreign policy views during his presidential campaign, including not only support for AUKUS, but for sharing nuclear submarine technology with India. He has called for both increased defence commitments from regional US allies, and anincreasein US defence spending. Hesupportedclassifying Australia as a “domestic source” for US defence production and, on the campaign trail, said he wouldconsiderre-joining some form of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). He wants the United States to expand trade relations with regional countries and to explicitly commit to Taiwan’s defence in the event of a Chinese invasion — but would want to revoke this support once the United States has grown its own semiconductor manufacturing industry and gained "semiconductor independence.”
Foreign policy
Asian alliances| Ramaswamy hascalledfor increased US trade engagement in the Indo-Pacific, as well as for aPacific American Treaty Organisation(PATO) that includes Australia, South Korea, Japan, India and other Southeast Asian countries. He hascalledfor an increase in US naval capacity by 20 per cent to “be able to meet our AUKUS agreement standards” and said that Australia, Japan and the Philippines shouldexpandtheir defence budgets. He has also said that US allies shoulddeepentheir investment in regional countries to “offset Chinese economic influence.”
Defence spending| Ramaswamy has said the AUKUS pact aligns with his “tough love” vision for US engagement with China. He hasvowedto establish a new floor of four per cent of GDP on US military expenditures to ensure that Virginia-class submarines are delivered to Australia on schedule. Ramaswamy has alsoadvocatedfor strengthening US-India relations to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Hesupportsan “AUKUS-style deal” with India to “share nuclear submarine technology and empower the Indian navy.”
China| Ramaswamy hascalledfor the United States to “declare economic independence” from China and take immediate steps towards decoupling, includingbanningUS businesses from expanding into China and preventing “CCP affiliates” from buying US land. Ramaswamy has alsosaidthat the United States should reduce its supply chain dependencies on China for components of its advanced weaponry, arguing that the United States is currently “suicidally dependent” on its “chief adversary” to meet its defence needs.
Taiwan| Ramaswamybelievesthat "strategic ambiguity” about whether the United States will defend Taiwan against invasion creates “mutual confusion” with China that increases the risks of a US-China conflict. He has argued for the United States to make an affirmative commitment to Taiwan’s defence which will expire once the United States has gained “semiconductor independence.” Ramaswamy hasexplicitly calledfor Australia to take a “stronger posture” in defence of Taiwan, and consider boosting Australian military assistance, diplomatic visits and trade initiatives with Taiwan in a “porcupine strategy” of multiple defensive measures to deter China. Hebelievesthat if the United States and India strengthen their military partnership, India could help the United States block maritime routes crucial for China's oil supplies in the event of a war in Taiwan.
Trade| Ramaswamy sees trade as a tool to counter China and hasarguedfor the need to enact bilateral trade deals with "trusted allies and hemispheric neighbours.” During his campaign, he promoted aplanfor "sensible” decoupling from China involving onshoring critical supply chains to the US, andexpandingtrade relations with allies like Japan, South Korea and India. Hesupportedthe push to designate Australia as a “domestic source” within the meaning of Title III of the USDefense Production Act, and signalled that he wouldconsiderre-joining some form of a bolstered Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Ukraine| Ramaswamybelievesthat US support for Ukraine “does not advance American interests” and hasvoicedstrong opposition to Ukraine’s accession to NATO. He wouldseekto cease further US support for Ukraine and negotiate a peace treaty with Russia that would make“major concessions”in the hope that Russia would reduce its engagement with China and de-escalate nuclear tensions.
Immigration| Similar to Trump’s recent rhetoric on immigration, Ramaswamy has called for “the largest mass deportation in American history,” saying that he would “universally” deport all undocumented immigrants in the United States. He has said that he would use themilitaryto "secure the border" and that US-born children of unauthorised immigrants must “earn” citizenship by passing the civics test required for naturalised citizens or serving for six months in the country’s military or as a first responder.
The wildcards
Kari Lake
Known for:News anchor, Arizona gubernatorial campaign (2022)
Home state:Arizona
Age in 2024: 55 (born 23 August 1969)
Who are they?
Self-described as “Trump in a dress,” Lake is most widely known for her narrow loss in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election despite strong backing from Trump during the campaign. A former news anchor, she is nowrunningfor the state’s Senate seat. Lake never conceded her 2022 loss, filing lawsuits in the aftermath and saying she is “never going to walk away from the fight to restore honest elections.” She attracted attention in Australia in 2022 for a60 Minutesinterviewin which she derided Australian gun laws, described Australian pandemic quarantine measures as “internment camps” and “the most horrifying thing I think I’ve ever seen a government do,” and stated that Australians have “given your rights away, you melted down all your guns and you guys have no freedom.”
VP CV
Despite her narrow 2022 campaign loss, Lake has maintained a high profile in the Republican party through her effusive praise of Trump and mirroring of his rhetoric. She has emphasised her ‘America First’ credentials,saying“when it comes to globalism, I’m the most dangerous politician in the world.” While she lacks experience in government, she could potentially help Trump’s appeal with suburban women — a key electoral demographic for his campaign — and her home state is a key target for both campaigns. She would likely remain in lockstep with Trump’s policy agenda throughout his administration.
“[Lake] is not worried about who President Trump picks as his vice president, but she is certain it will be a great pick. She is focused on winning her Senate race in Arizona.”20 November 2023, Lake campaign spokesperson, Vanity Fair
Relationship with Trump
Lake has maintained a close relationship with Trump since her 2022 run, which she undertook with his backing. She hasclaimedthat Trump “helped inspire me to run for office” because he “reminded the American People that they should always come first.” She has also dismissed Trump’s legal issues as “a nothing burger.” In turn, Trump has stronglyendorsedLake in her 2024 Senate race, saying: “When I’m back in the White House, I need strong fighters like Kari in the Senate... Kari is one of the toughest fighters in our movement, and I am proud to give her my complete and total endorsement for the United States Senate."
What should Australians know?
Lake has publicly spoken comparatively little on foreign policy, instead focusing on domestic political debates. However, she has strongly argued against continued aid to Ukraine and is likely to mirror Trump’s broader approach to allies and global affairs.
Ukraine| Lake has predicated support for Ukraine on immigration reform, saying that “not one penny should go to Ukraine until we have a secure border.” She has echoed Trump’s comments on NATO andsaidthat “everyone needs to pay their fair share” and that “we can’t protect the entire world.” Lake hasarguedthat Americans are “tired of pouring their hard-earned money” into Ukraine and said that the war “[is] over, it’s lost.”
Immigration| In her run for Senate in 2024, Lake hasunveileda “10 Point Plan to Secure the Border” and said she is committed to “finishing the wall” and enhancing technological surveillance on the border. She has argued that shecalledUS immigration an “invasion” “before anybody else had recognised it” and hasadvocatedfor measures such as expanding and enforcing theE-Verify program, introducing automatic and immediate deportation of individuals who attempt to enter the country outside of official entry ports, and withholding foreign aid to countries that do not “actively assist” US agencies in deterring migrants.
JD Vance
Known for:Senator from Ohio (2023–)
Home state:Ohio
Age in 2024: 40 (born 2 August 1984)
Who are they?
Ohio’s newest senator attractednational attentionin 2016 for his bestselling memoirHillbilly Elegywhich described his Rust Belt upbringing.The former marine and venture capitalist was backed by bothTrumpand tech billionairePeter Thielin his 2022 Senate campaign. Despite closely aligning himself with Trump since his Senate run, Vance wasnot alwaysa Trump ally, and publicly and vociferouslycriticisedhim during the 2016 presidential campaign. Unlike a number of the other vice presidential contenders, Vance has spoken widely on foreign policy, including on Indo-Pacific security.
VP CV
Vance built his career on his 2016 memoir, which became a sensation and saw him labelled a “spokesman for a disaffected group — America’s working-class whites.” Despite his previouscriticismsof Trump, Vance has come to strongly defend the former president on a host of issues and become a leading conservative voice. His youth would also likely play in Trump’s favour, given concerns about Trump’s age. Vance has relatively little experience in governing and Ohio is no longer the swing state it once was, but his perceived ability to speak to the conservative base may make him an attractive choice for Trump.
“Look, I was elected to be a senator for the people of Ohio... But I’m going to help Trump however I can.”10 December 2023, CNN
Vance’s foreign policy stance is labelled by some to be that of a “Asia firster” in that it rests on shifting US focus away from Europe and towards addressing the threat of China. He has argued for US foreign policy to prioritise US national interest rather than values, and has indicated support for the AUKUS agreement. Vance has denounced continued support for Ukraine, but is strongly in favour of aid to Taiwan and Israel.
China| Vancedescribeshis strategic position on China as a “straightforwardly economically nationalist argument, [and] even though it may cost a couple basis points of GDP, we should be making more of our stuff.” In the Senate, heco-sponsoredtheChina Trade Relations Act, which would revoke China’s permanent most-favoured-nation status, due to hissupportfor American manufacturing. Vance has tied focus on China to a need to disengage from Ukraine,sayingthe United States must "stop the focus on Ukraine, we’ve got to focus on China because that’s where the real enemy is.”
Immigration| Vance hasdefendedTrump’s comments on immigration andreportedlysaid he would push for US$3 billion to “complete portions” of the border wall that Trump began. HeintroducedtheState Border Security Actwhich would “authorize certain States to erect temporary protective fencing within 25 miles of the southwest border to deter illegal immigration.” Vance has also argued that the United States needs to “declare the Mexican drug cartels a terrorist organisation”— a move which he has said would allow the US military to “go to Mexico, to go on our southern border.”
Joni Ernst
Known for:Senator from Iowa (2015–), Chair of the Senate Republican Policy Committee (2023–)
Home state:Iowa
Age in 2024:54 (born 1 July 1970)
Who are they?
Ernst served in the Iowa National Guard for over 20 years before beginning a career in politics. An Iowa State Senator from 2011–14, she was elected in 2014 as the first woman to represent Iowa in the US Senate and the first Republican to hold her Senate seat in over 35 years. Ernst has since become the fourth-ranked Republican Senator as Chair of the Senate Republican Policy Committee, meaning shemanages and directsthe weekly official forum for Republican senators to debate and discuss their legislative agenda in the Senate. She is currentlychallengingSenator Tom Cotton to beSenate Republican Conferencechair, a position which involves shaping party messaging, coordinating legislative strategies in the Senate, and being a leading party spokesperson. This would move her up the GOP Senate leadership rankings and make Ernst only thesecondRepublican woman to hold the position, and the first since 1973. Throughout her Senate tenure she has championed conservative causes and spoken extensively on the importance of Indo-Pacific alliances and partnerships for US security.
VP CV
Although she has branded herself as anoutsider, Ernst’s background and more conventional views on free trade and foreign aid would make her closer to an establishment pick for Trump’s vice president than several of the other possible candidates for the job. She hasemphasisedher military experience and has demonstrated a focus on foreign policy legislation in Congress. Ernst was interviewed as a possible running mate for Trump in 2016 but turned him down, “knowing it wasn’t the right thing for me or my family.” If chosen, she would likely play a similar role as former vice president Mike Pence during the Trump administration in engaging with and reassuring allies about US foreign policy.
“I think it’s an honour just to be considered and talked about [as Trump’s running mate]... I would like to see someone with that national security, foreign policy experience considered.”12 January 2024, Guy Benson Show interview
Relationship with Trump
Ernst was interviewed by Trump in 2016 as a possible vice presidential running mate but declined, citingfamily obligationsand saying “President Trump will need some great assistance in the United States Senate and I can provide that.” As a Senator, sheoverwhelminglyvoted in line with Trump’s positions,endorsedhim in 2020 andvotedto acquit Trump inbothof his impeachment trials. Trump gave Ernstsupportduring her 2020 re-election campaign, however, Ernstvotedto certify the results of the 2020 election, was the last member of the US Senate Republican leadership to endorse Trump in 2024 and in 2023 said that the Republican party “is so much more than Donald Trump.” Ernst has expressedwillingnessto serve as Trump’s vice president, but was publiclydenouncedin February 2024 by Donald Trump Jr for her vote to provide military aid to Ukraine, which has likely damaged her chances of selection.
What should Australians know?
Ernst hasemphasisedher military experience and has particularly focused on foreign policy during her time in Congress, advocating for the United States to deepen its engagement with Australia and the Indo-Pacific. She described the Australia-US alliance as a “critical friendship” in 2021, and hassupportedlegislation facilitating the AUKUS agreement, andhighlightedUS interest in technological development under AUKUS Pillar II. Ernst has traveled on multiple regional delegations,notingthe importance of Indo-Pacific partnerships “not only for our strategic national defense interests, but also for our economic growth.”
Foreign policy
Asian alliances| Since her election to the Senate, Ernst hasadvocatedfor the United States to bolster its commitment to its allies and partners. In June 2023, sheargued that“as China increases its nefarious activities on the world stage, strong US relations with the Indo-Pacific are increasingly important.” Ernst has joined multiple delegations to Indo-Pacific nations since joining the Senate in 2015, includingSouth Korea,Japan,Taiwan, andVietnam.Shereassured alliesin 2016 after, on the campaign trail, Trump threatened to withdraw US troops from South Korea, and latercalledfor the United States to continue its joint military exercises with South Korea when Trump threatened to end them in 2018. ErnstintroducedtheRings of Fire Actin July 2023, which aims to strengthen long-range precision strike capabilities in the Indo-Pacific through coordination with key regional allies and partners. The legislationnamesNorthern Australia as a potential key basing location and specificallyhighlightsAustralia’s efforts to modernise its guided weapons programs under Pillar II of AUKUS as a sign of allied interest in mutually accelerating development and production timelines. She hascalledfor greater investment in the US submarine industrial base and in May 2023sponsoredtheTORPEDO Act— legislation that would reform the US regulatory system to fast-track AUKUS implementation, including by adding Australia and the United Kingdom as domestic sources in the US Defense Production Act. Both theRings of FireAct and TORPEDO Act have been referred to Senate committees and are awaiting further action. As early as March 2017, Ernstexpressed supportfor expanded US military exercises and operations in Asia and more recently advocated for “peace through strength” andbolsteringthe US defence posture in the Indo-Pacific. In January 2023 she said that cuts to US military spending would be “the wrong thing to do when we live in an ever increasingly dangerous, dangerous world.”
Trade| Ernst has indicatedsupportfor free trade agreements,pointingto benefits for her agriculturally dominated home state of Iowa. Ernst believes that trade and national defence typically “go hand-in-hand" because “good trade partners make good allies.” She has repeatedly emphasised the need for the United States to enact “free-trade agreements on a multi-lateral, regional or bilateral basis” in the Indo-Pacific to counter China’s regional influence and secure US commercial competitiveness. Ernst has advocated for the United States to make “meaningful and enforceable market access commitments,” including consideringjoiningthe Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), andvoiced concernsthat China could become the primary trade partner for regional allies. In2017, she sent a letter to then-president Trump expressing concern that the United States might withdraw from the US-Korea free trade agreement, arguing that China “would gladly step in to fill that void and consolidate power” in the absence of US leadership in the region, and, later, in 2019, shepraisedTrump’s signing of the US-Japan trade agreement,highlightingits benefits for Iowa’s agricultural industry.
Immigration| Ernst praised the contents of abipartisan border security billin February 2024, but ultimatelyvotedagainst it after backlash from her constituents. She expressed anger that Congress was unable to pass it,sayingthat “even my own colleagues were out there knowingly putting out misinformation about the bill” because of “a former president.” She hascalledfor expanded federal law enforcement powers to be able to detain and deport undocumented immigrants who are charged with or convicted of crimes. During the Trump administration, Ernststatedthat, while a border wall was required in some areas, it would be unnecessary in some sections of the southern border. In 2018, Ernst alsojoinedDemocratic Senators to oppose the use of military lawyers to prosecute immigration cases at the border.
Nikki Haley
Known for:2024 presidential campaign, US Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–18), Governor of South Carolina (2011–17)
Home state:South Carolina
Age in 2024: 52 (born 20 January 1972)
Who are they?
Haley became South Carolina’s youngest ever, and first female, governor in 2010 at just 38 years old. During her tenure, shegarnered national attentionfor her controversial decision to remove the Confederate flag from State House grounds in 2015. She became the first Indian American US Ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration, overseeing the USwithdrawalfrom the UN Human Rights Council and having apublic spatwith the Trump White House over whether or not further sanctions would be imposed on Russia. She returned to the spotlight as the last Republican primary candidate standing in the way of Trump winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination for a third consecutive time. Herrefusalto end her candidacy earlier in the race drew strongattacksfrom Trump, though it also won hersupportfrom a sizeable minority of the party.
VP CV
Haley’s presidential campaign wasnotedfor its foreign policy emphasis, drawing on her UN ambassadorship. More important for Trump, however, would be her widerappealto independent voters and to the moderate wing of the Republican party who may not otherwise turn out to vote for him. Her proposed five-year “term limit” for federal bureaucrats aligns with Trump’s planned restructuring of the public service. Nevertheless, Haley has explicitlydeniedinterest in serving as vice president and aggressively attacked, and was attacked by, Trump on the campaign trail making her an unlikely choice of running mate. Perhaps most notably, she has yet to endorse Trump since suspending her presidential campaign.
“I don’t want to be anybody’s vice president. That is off the table. I have always said that. That is a game that I am not going to play. I don’t want to be vice president.”20 January 2024, Reuters
Relationship with Trump
As governor, Haley was initiallycriticalof Trump during the 2016 election campaign anddid not endorse himin the Republican primaries — offering onlybegrudging supportin the general election. Nevertheless, she was nominated as Trump’s first ambassador to the United Nations. As UN ambassador, she was involved inpublic disagreementswith the administration over US foreign policy, though upon her resignation in 2018Trump praised heras “very special,” “incredible” and a “fantastic person.” She laterendorsedTrump for the 2020 election, saying that he had “earned” another term. However, on the 2024 campaign trail her criticism of Trump became increasingly direct and combative. WhiledescribingTrump as “the right president at the right time,” Haley has also said that he is “not the same person he was in 2016,” and called Trump “unhinged” and “diminished,” saying that his 2024 presidential campaign is “like suicide for our country.”
What should Australians know?
Haley has singled out Australia as a key ally for the United States in the Indo-Pacific, and pushed for greater US economic and military engagement with regional democracies. She has advocated a hawkish approach to China and global affairs, and supports economic decoupling from China as far as possible. Unlike Trump and many Republicans, she has strongly advocated for continued US support for Ukraine, arguing that it is in the US national interest.
Foreign policy
Asian alliances| Haley has described the Indo-Pacific region as a“consequential force”in the 21st century and hascalledfor the United States to strengthen its alliances beyond Europe “so that the world is more safe.” She has emphasised the vital role ofdemocraciesin shaping the future of the Indo-Pacific, and the importance of ensuring “Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia and all our friends and allies in the Pacific are safe from Communist China.” In efforts to counter threats from China, Haley has argued that the United States should enhance its foothold in Asia and“rally nations”to its side by forging stronger military ties with Australia, Japan and South Korea, and stronger bonds with India and the Philippines. She has also stronglysupportedthe AUKUS partnership with Australia. She has been especially vocal on US-India relations, previously calling for the United States toformalisean alliance with India and describing it as a“vital strategic partner”in securing peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific.
China| Haleywantsthe United States to “think about China critically, creatively and courageously.” On the campaign trail, she outlined arange of proposals, including pushing to ban federal funding for universities that accept Chinese funding, preventing Chinese investors from purchasing land, and enticing US businesses to “leave China as completely as possible.” She has alsoarguedthat US agricultural dominance is necessary “so that China is always dependent on America for their food.” Haley has stated that Beijing’s military build-up and escalating aggression toward Taiwan indicates that China is“preparing its people for war”and“it’s not a matter of if but rather when there’s going to be an invasion.”She hascalledfor the United States and its allies to stand with Taiwan “without apology” and provide “everything” it needs to bolster its military and economic strength to deter a Chinese invasion, including maintaining a strong US naval presence in the Taiwan Strait.
Trade| Haley hasdescribedherself as a “firm believer in economic freedom,” but alsonotedthat “not all trade with all trading partners is the same,”suggestingthat US companies should prepare for an economic decoupling from China and that “if it is not made in America, we want a friend to make it.” She hascalledfor a US-Taiwan free trade deal and was also a signatory of a2015 letter to Congresssupporting legislation to reauthorise the US Export-Import Bank to allow “our companies and workers to compete on a level playing field against international competitors.” Haley believes the United States should "end all normal trade relations with China" and has denounced Trump's planned tariffs on all US imports as "ludicrous" but suggested that she would still support higher tariffs on China.
Ukraine| Haleyarguesthat support for Ukraine is in the US national interest. ShedescribedUkraine as the “first line of defence” for the United States andsaidthat the United States should provide Ukraine with “the equipment, the ammunition to win.” She also asserted that China is watching the war“with great interest,”and that weak US support for Ukraine would“only encourage”China to invade Taiwan.
Climate| During the first Republican primary debate, Haleyminimisedthe need for US environmental action, arguing that climate change is “real” but that the onus lies on China and India to lower their emissions. She has condemned President Biden’s energy policies as “anti-American,” and a 2020 video released by her advocacy group ‘Stand for America’ heralded“free market solutions”like carbon-capture technology, reforestation, energy storage solutions and fracking. In June 2023, shecalledfor the United States to bolster its domestic energy security and end reliance on countries like Russia, by producing domestic oil and removing the Biden administration’s permits and regulations on energy producers.
Domestic policy
Abortion| Haley described the 2022Dobbsdecision as a “victory for life and democracy.” As governor, she signed abillinto law in 2016 that made abortions beyond 20 weeks illegal, saying the law was “the furthest we could get it at the time.” Like her 2024 Republican primary competitors, Haley has called herself “unapologetically pro-life" but struck a different tone by emphasising “consensus” and the need to be “honest” about the public appetite for abortion restrictions and the hurdles to passing legislation through Congress.
Immigration| In the early months of her first term as governor in 2011, Nikki Haley signed into law a bill thatrequiredpolice and employers to stringently check immigration statuses in what she described as the “toughest illegal immigration law in the country.” During her presidential campaign, she indicated she wanted to “go national” with similar legislation. In 2016, Haley called Trump’s proposedbanon Muslim immigration “absolutely un-American," though as UN ambassador she laterdefendedhis travel bans. While Trump’s campaign tried tosuggestthat Haley opposed the former president’s border wall, on the campaign trail shesaidthat she supported a border wall but that other measures were also needed. She called for thedefundingof sanctuary cities and ensuring that “every business has to prove that the people they hire are in this country legally,” mirroring her South Carolina legislation.
Ava Kalinauskas, Research Associate, United States Studies Centre; Samuel Garrett, Research Associate, United States Studies Centre