Blue-collar jobs set to decline in 2023

Evidence of a slowing job market was seen in the latest employment data that showed that employment has increased by only 28,000 in the past four months, compared to 154,000 in the four months prior.

Strong labour demand to date has seen the country’s employment grow to over 13.6 million, with more than 300,000 additional Australians becoming employed this year alone.

However, the report’s lead author, David Rumbens, said despite the global and domestic pressures, the labour market remains very tight. 

“A slowdown has emerged. It will likely be more pronounced for blue-collar jobs, while there are still opportunities for white-collar workers, and it may still be some time before the number of unfilled job vacancies returns to more normal levels,” he said.

“Those gains will in large part depend on Australia being able to return to typical, pre-COVID levels of net overseas migration.”

Deloitte Access Economics expects total national white-collar employment growth will moderate after a record-breaking 357,800 in 2021–22, to a still strong 282,800 in 2022–23, before slowing to 143,100 in 2023–24.

Looking ahead over the next decade, total national white-collar employment is expected to grow on average by 1.8 per cent per year between 2021–22 and 2031–32, outpacing blue-collar employment that is forecast to grow on average by just 0.8 per cent per year.

“White collar employment within the public sector grew above the national average during 2020–21 and 2021–22 due to pandemic-related government stimulus, as well as recent disaster-related spending on floods and social assistance payments,” Mr Rumbens said.

“But we expect part of this growth will be unwound in 2022–23 — seeing white collar employment decline by 17,700 workers.”

Deloitte Access Economics also expects CBD white-collar employment will grow by 2.8 per cent during 2022–23 — a touch slower than national white-collar growth of 3.0 per cent. 

Deloitte Access Economics director and report co-author, Blair Chapman, said Australia’s population grew by 0.5 per cent in the March quarter 2022 — the fastest quarterly growth since March 2018, with the uptick underpinned by the largest quarterly increase in net overseas migration on record.

“An important issue that is holding Australia’s labour market back is the lack of job mobility,” he said.

“Part of the extreme skills shortage issue that businesses have faced is a mismatch between those wanting to work and the vacant jobs. A large part of the mismatch is driven by differences in the skills required by employers and the qualifications and experience of the unemployed.”