COP26 recap: Cautious optimism

Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius has always been the ambitious target, as the Paris Agreement ambiguously aims for “well below 2°C”. However, as updated climate science continues to support our worst fears, the once aspirational 1.5 degrees Celsius is now commonly perceived as the necessary target to minimise catastrophic climate change. 

The headline to emerge out of COP26 is that 1.5 degrees Celsius remains within reach, although some asterisks should be attached to this statement. Firstly, the only country to update their net determined contribution (NDC) during the summit was India. According to Climate Action Tracker modelling, the world remains on track for 2.4 degrees Celsius with 2030 targets only, and 2.1 degrees Celsius with the inclusion of net-zero pledges. To keep 1.5 degrees Celsius alive, delegates are relying on a clause within the Glasgow Climate Pact that calls for countries to adjust their 2030 targets in 2022. 

Another outcome of COP26 was the finalisation of the Paris Agreement’s international carbon trading scheme. Article 6 was agreed to by nearly 200 countries and enables countries that exceed their emissions targets to sell credits to underachieving nations. While this is a positive development for the future of global emissions trading, developing nations are weary, fearing that the worst actors will look to exploit this mechanism and continue emitting close to business as usual. 

Positively, various industry-specific initiatives, such as the IFRS Foundation’s launch of the International Sustainability Standards Board, ensured the COP26 was a productive forum for the economic transition that lies ahead. However, it is the frustration of the final day that COP26 will be remembered. 

Despite being the only nation to update their NDC during the summit, India led the opposition against the inclusion of phasing out coal in the Glasgow Climate Pact. Instead, the term “phasing down” has been used, meaning that yet another summit has passed without the placement of an expiry date on coal. 

COP26 was neither a complete failure nor success. Instead, we can remain cautiously optimistic that the tide will continue to shift to make 1.5 degrees Celsius a reality.